Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.003181 0.003477 0.003794 0.004157 0.004562 0.005003 0.005520
2025-12-21 0.002627 0.003034 0.003498 0.004069 0.004758 0.005566 0.006594
2025-12-28 0.002317 0.002775 0.003321 0.004026 0.004921 0.006032 0.007533
2026-01-04 0.002125 0.002620 0.003233 0.004055 0.005144 0.006561 0.008578
2026-01-11 0.001942 0.002452 0.003102 0.004003 0.005242 0.006917 0.009414
2026-01-18 0.001798 0.002318 0.002998 0.003968 0.005345 0.007278 0.010280
2026-01-25 0.001672 0.002195 0.002894 0.003917 0.005415 0.007586 0.011092
2026-02-01 0.001582 0.002113 0.002838 0.003926 0.005563 0.008014 0.012124
2026-02-08 0.001486 0.002014 0.002749 0.003876 0.005617 0.008298 0.012953
2026-02-15 0.001394 0.001915 0.002652 0.003806 0.005627 0.008510 0.013679
2026-02-22 0.001336 0.001861 0.002618 0.003825 0.005777 0.008956 0.014852
2026-03-01 0.001304 0.001842 0.002630 0.003916 0.006048 0.009622 0.016500
2026-03-08 0.001232 0.001761 0.002550 0.003861 0.006083 0.009911 0.017525
2026-03-15 0.001159 0.001676 0.002459 0.003781 0.006072 0.010119 0.018435
2026-03-22 0.001101 0.001612 0.002395 0.003741 0.006125 0.010447 0.019626
2026-03-29 0.001063 0.001575 0.002372 0.003767 0.006295 0.011006 0.021381
2026-04-05 0.001013 0.001515 0.002309 0.003720 0.006326 0.011301 0.022606
2026-04-12 0.000970 0.001465 0.002257 0.003688 0.006381 0.011647 0.023995
2026-04-19 0.000927 0.001413 0.002200 0.003642 0.006406 0.011931 0.025284
2026-04-26 0.000898 0.001381 0.002174 0.003649 0.006533 0.012441 0.027198
2026-05-03 0.000860 0.001335 0.002121 0.003604 0.006552 0.012721 0.028587
2026-05-10 0.000822 0.001285 0.002060 0.003539 0.006525 0.012896 0.029734
2026-05-17 0.000800 0.001262 0.002043 0.003557 0.006669 0.013469 0.032041